Earlier this month, Blizzard confirmed some unfortunate, but otherwise to-be-expected, news. NeitherDiablo 4norOverwatch 2are set to release in 2021, and while many more seemed to focus in onOverwatch 2, a lot of fans were seemingly disappointed by this confirmation.Overwatch 2itself may have experienced some type of delay, but being upset overDiablo 4not releasing this year seems to stem from one important factor: unmanaged expectations.
Very little is known aboutDiablo 4, though Blizzconis set to reveal more information on it. As a result of this potential information pipeline and the quarterly updates, some have taken this confirmation to suggest thatDiablo 4will launch in 2022. While not necessarily impossible, it’s more likely thanDiablo 4is still years away.
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Blizzard Development
Video game development is a tricky situation, one that takes years and one where a single button doesn’t work as a fix-all. Managing expectations comes, in part, with understanding how a particular company approaches it. For example, fans can always expected high-quality, polished experiences from Rockstar, which is why anewGrand Theft AutoorRed Deadgamemay not launch until the latter half of this decade, at the earliest. At the same time, Ubisoft maintains a very ordinate, collaboration-oriented development which sees it put out several games a year.
For Blizzard (not counting its Activision/Call of Dutycomponent), it’s in a similar boat to Rockstar: sometime after the later ’90s and early 2000s, game releases began taking years.Expansions forWorld of Warcraftare a different story, butStarcraftgot a sequel 12 years later,Hearthstoneconception began around 2008 but wouldn’t release until 2014, andOverwatchreleased in 2016 and its sequel may not be set until 2022 (6 years). Perhaps its worst culprit is theDiabloseries:Diabloreleased in 1997,Diablo 2followed rather quickly in 2000, butDiablo 3came about 12 years later. As it stands, it’s been about 9 years since the last mainlineDiabloentry released.
Diablo 4 Development
Even within this, it’s worth looking at what is known aboutDiablodevelopment. Specifically, it should be noted thatDiablo 3was a in heavily-rumored, almost “mythical” development period for quite some time, likely beginning sometime between 2000 and 2005, before being revealed in 2008 and releasing in 2012. If this could be taken as a pattern, then 4 years after reveal would putDiablo 4in 2023. This is, of course, without taking COVID-19 or anything else into consideration.
Diablo 4’s development itself is a bit more detailed, if still less certain. AfterDiablo 3: The King in the Northwas canceled around 2013/2014, work onDiablo 4as Project Hades began, and it would have gone in a completely different direction. Project Hades was essentially aSoulslike take onDiablothat was canceled in 2016, where work then began on Project Fenris, which by all reports, is the current form ofDiablo 4. This would suggest that the core development and/or perhaps the main work load on its current form began around then, putting the game in core development for roughly 5 years.
Broad comments about it spanned from 2016-2019, where it was officially revealed at Blizzcon 2019. All of this is to say thatDiablo 4releasing in 2022 isn’t impossible, but it’s not likely. It’s about as likely as it was for 2021. Even with the most conservative guesswork regardingDiablo 3development, that took somewhere around 7 years and up to a full 12. With 2016 being where the current iteration ofDiablo 4began coming together, a conservative estimate would be something more like 2023. This is, again, without taking COVID-19 into consideration, which has likely impacted it to some degree (if minorly), and at the same time, it’s possible some specifics are slightly off.
Regardless,expectingDiablo 4in 2021was a bit of a leap, and it somewhat feels that way about 2022. For now, the ball is still in Blizzard’s court, but fans really shouldn’t expect aDiablo 4release date at Blizzcon. Perhaps there will be a window to aid with these expectations, but expectations should not run wild.
Diablo 4is in development for PC, PS4, and Xbox One.
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